Maui Real Estate Market Report | June 2015
Half Year Statistics
” Not overly exuberent and not unraveling” says Paul Brewbaker (TZ Economics and former Chief Economist of Bank of Hawaii) on July 18, 2015 at the RAM General Membership Meeting.
I am going to outline the straight on Maui Real Estate Market Report and Statistics from Jun 2015 but first I will give you a brief overview from a meeting I attended with Paul Brewbaker on the state of Maui’s real estate and economy. A more in-depth article on Paul Brewbaker’s Maui Real Estate and Economic Report is forthcoming. (I am awaiting his graphs before I write my full report, so if you don’t want to miss it, please subscribe to this blog or email me at Jeannie@JeannieKong.com). Also I will be recapping the Market History of the Last 10 years in this report.
How’s the market? This is probably one of the most popular questions a realtor gets. “Well… I say, it’s not bad”, which is actually better news than one might think. According to Paul Brewbaker “not bad” means in “a nice long term glide… like a goldilocks pace”. “Not that bad” may mean we have some staying power. “Not bubblicious” means our expansion may continue albeit at a slower, but more consistent pace.
The world is in volatile market. Some of it affects us directly and some to a lesser degree. When Canadian oil was strong, so was their dollar and now, we have seen the Canadian buyer recede just as the west coast area buyers come in again.
Paul Brewbaker says the main indicator for the next year-and-a-half with regard to Maui Real Estate is “pace of withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation and pace of long term interest rates”. He feels that the “long end of the yield curve will probably go faster than the short end, but the short end is what the FEDS use in this case, as kind of an anchor to what the market anticipates that eventually the market will raise the rates. We are waiting for the FEDS and Janet Yellen to begin that process later this year”.
When asked how long he feels this market expansion will last, Paul Brewbaker replies “outside of some meteorological precipitous event…that this business expansion will be a relatively long one in US history. We are in year 7 (6 year and one month) of the expansion now, and at this point the last cycle was over. The average for the last 30 or 40 years was about 8 years and we got a good run going. It doesn’t seem like it’s overdone or too bubblicious and that may mean it could actually extend through the twenty teens”. He goes on to say that it could extend in the 2020’s but the risk of course is that it could abort prematurely for one reason or another and almost certainly it will be due to external factors.
So no one has a crystal ball and all we can do is to make the best choices with information we garner. Every mature investor knows that risk is part of the puzzle.
HIGHLIGHTS and Bright Spots on Island of Maui
Maui real estate being ever so local, you can see that in areas of Maui, temperature is higher!
Maui Residential Single Family Homes: Central had +16% increase of average sales price, +20% increase in median sales price, +44% increase in dollar volume compared to over same YTD last year! Next came Pukalani area with +6% increase in average sales price, +8% increase in median sales price and +47% increase in dollar volume compared to over same YTD last year.
Maui Condominiums: Kaanapali came in strong with +16% increase in average sales price and 42% increase in median sales price but less dollar volume -27% compared to same YTD last year. Central comes in strong again with +16 increase in average sales price, +12%increase in -21% compared to same time last year. The less dollar volume and unit sales is mostly due to less inventory left in median price ranges.
Maui Real Estate Luxury Market (Homes and Condos 2 million and up)
Maui Homes (2 million and up)
June 2015 Average Sales Price $2,988,230. Median Sales Price $2.900,000.
Year to date compared to same time frame last year
Average Sales Price January 1, 2015 – June 30, 2015: $3,710,777. Compared to January 1, 2014 – June 30, 2014: $4,357,111
Median Sales Price January 1, 2015 – June 30, 2015: $3,700,000. Compared to January 1, 2014 – June 30, 2014: $4,000,000
36 Homes sold from January 1, 2015-June 30, 2015. Total dollar Volume $133,587,999.
Highest Sold Price $14,500,000 at 3070 S. Kihei Rd in March 2015.
37 Units sold from January 1, 2014-June 30, 2014. Total dollar volume Search Results $161,213,120.
Highest Sold Price $9,300,000 at 3950 Makena Place in January 2014.
Maui Condos (2 Million and up)
June 2015 Average Sales Price $2,750,000. Median Sales Price $2.750,000.
2 total units sales, total sale volume $5,500,000
Year to date compared to same time frame last year
Average Sales Price January 1, 2015 – June 30, 2015: $3,323,689. Compared to January 1, 2014 – June 30, 2014: $3,154,821
Median Sales Price January 1, 2015 – June 30, 2015: $3,069,900. Compared to January 1, 2014 – June 30, 2014: $2,830,000
29 Condos sold from January 1, 2015-June 30, 2015. Total dollar Volume $96,387,000
HIGHEST Sold Price $6,100,000 at Wailea Beach Villas #G-302 on April 2015.
32 Units sold from January 1, 2014-June 30, 2014. Total dollar volume Search Results $100,954,298.
Highest Sold Price $5,200,000 at Honua Kai #601 in April 2014.
June Sales Volume: Residential homes Sales rose to 101 homes. Condo declined to 99 units. Land sales came in at 14 lots.
June Median Sales Price: Residential homes median price rose to $650,000. Condo median price declined to $355,000. Land median price declined to $420,000.
Please click on spreadsheet and graphs to get full view (if needed).
Maui 2015 Year to Date- Half Year Report (January- June 2015 to January-June 2014)
Residential unit of homes YTD (year to date): increased to 495 (plus+8% ). Median price increased to $600,000 (plus +5% )
Condomimums YTD: : sales decreased to 614 units (minus-7% YTD). Median price decreased to $420,000 (minus-1%)
Land YTD*: Land Lots sales declined to 79 (minus -19% change).Median price declined to $490,000 (minus -5% change )
*Land lots sales are such small sampling that statistics in this property class are not necessarily reliable markers.
Current Absorption rates (as of end of June 2015) are: Residential Homes (6.7 months). Condos (9.5 months). Land (26.5 months).
Absorption rates are the rate at which available homes are sold in a specific real estate market during a given time period. It is calculated by dividing the total number of available homes (this includes pending in escrow and active homes in my calculations) by the average number of sales per month. This helps us anticipate the market rate and how many weeks or months of inventory is left in that given market. Below is compared to last year to date. As you can see the pace is increasing “residential”.
I always like to see data in the context of the Bigger Picture, so let’s go back 10 years and see how we are doing (if you would like a complete pdf copy of graphs email me at Jeannie@JeannieKong.com)
This graphs above tell an interesting story. You can see that different parts of Maui County and peaked and hit bottom at different times. Needless to say Maui is a very localized market. Different market conditions can occur even from one condominium building to the next.
Call me for more details or more specialized Maui market reports.
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Thank you and have a great rest of 2015!
Jeannie Kong REALTOR®(S)
Maui Real Estate Advisors, LLC
808-276-1832 or info@LivingOnMaui.com